1. Overview of Ho Chi Minh City’s Apartment Market

Ho Chi Minh City’s (HCMC) real estate market is experiencing a significant shift. While the luxury apartment segment is booming, affordable housing is becoming increasingly scarce. This trend is driving middle-income buyers to explore real estate options in Binh Duong, Dong Nai, and Long An.

At the Q4 2024 Real Estate Market Summary and 2025 Forecast event, Troy Griffiths, Deputy Managing Director of Savills Vietnam, noted that while supply and market sentiment improved in late 2024, prices remain high, making homeownership a challenge for many buyers.

2. Luxury Apartments Lead Market Growth

Despite economic fluctuations, the luxury apartment segment in HCMC continues to dominate. The latest data reveals:

  • Primary supply in Q4 2024: 6,500 units, marking a 35% quarterly increase.
  • New supply: 2,700 units, a 243% increase quarter-over-quarter but a 3% decrease year-over-year.
  • Annual primary supply in 2024: 11,900 units, up 10% from 2023.
  • Mid-range and budget housing remain scarce.

According to Savills Vietnam, high-end projects continue to lead sales, with luxury transactions accounting for 2,700 units in Q4 2024, representing a 43% quarterly growth, though still 10% lower year-over-year.

3. Sharp Decline in Affordable Housing

While the luxury market flourishes, the affordable housing segment is shrinking rapidly:

  • Class C apartment supply has dropped 45% annually since 2020, reaching only 1,300 units in 2024, the lowest level in a decade.
  • The number of apartments priced under 50 million VND/m² fell by 20%, now making up only 15% of the total primary market supply.
  • In 2024, units priced under 50 million VND/m² accounted for just 18% of total transactions, a sharp decline from 50% in 2020.

4. Rising Luxury Apartment Prices in HCMC

Luxury apartment prices in HCMC are soaring, driven by strong demand from high-net-worth buyers and investors:

  • Transactions for apartments priced above 80 million VND/m² increased 561% quarter-over-quarter and 2,118% year-over-year.
  • These high-end units now account for 76% of all apartment transactions in HCMC.
  • Absorption rates have improved, reaching 42% in Q4 2024, an increase of 2 percentage points quarterly and 1 percentage point yearly.

Key Factors Driving Luxury Apartment Sales

  • Strong investor interest: High-end projects in prime locations continue to attract wealthy buyers.
  • Limited land supply: Scarcity of land in central areas pushes developers to focus on luxury projects.
  • High-quality amenities: Luxury projects offer superior facilities, smart home technology, and prime locations.
  • Foreign buyer demand: Overseas investors are showing increased interest in HCMC’s premium real estate.

5. Middle-Income Buyers Moving to Neighboring Provinces

Due to the rising cost of living and limited affordable options in HCMC, many buyers are turning to suburban areas such as:

  • Binh Duong
  • Dong Nai
  • Long An

In these provinces, property prices are significantly lower, averaging 30-40 million VND/m², making them more accessible for middle-income buyers.

According to Savills Vietnam, infrastructure improvements and expanding urban development in these areas have made them attractive alternatives to HCMC. As a result, demand in these suburban markets is expected to grow further in 2025.

6. Outlook for HCMC’s Real Estate Market in 2025

New Housing Supply in 2025 and Beyond

Savills Vietnam projects that:

  • 10,000 new apartments will enter the HCMC market in 2025, with mid-range (Class B) apartments making up 54% of the supply.
  • By 2027, 46,000 new apartments from 69 projects will be available.
  • Thu Duc City is expected to dominate the market, contributing 52% of new supply.
  • Other significant supply hubs include Binh Tan (11%) and District 7 (10%).

Market Trends for Villas and Townhouses

The villa and townhouse market in HCMC remains highly exclusive, with limited supply:

  • In 2024, only 197 units were launched from two projects.
  • The primary supply was 970 units, reflecting a 2% annual decline.
  • No new villa or townhouse projects were introduced, leading to a 20% drop in primary supply to 613 units.
  • Luxury villas priced above 30 billion VND/unit dominate the segment, comprising 74% of the market.

7. Should You Invest in HCMC Real Estate in 2025?

With the real estate market evolving, potential buyers and investors must consider financial factors, market trends, and location before making decisions.

  • Invest in luxury apartments if:
    • You are targeting high-end buyers or rental markets.
    • You prefer central locations with premium amenities.
    • You seek long-term value appreciation.
  • Consider suburban areas if:
    • You have a moderate budget and want a better price-to-value ratio.
    • You plan to buy property for long-term residence.
    • You prioritize larger living spaces and a family-friendly environment.

Stay informed about market trends and investment opportunities to make the best real estate decisions in 2025.